Looking Ahead to 2019; Reviewing a Prospect, a Player and a Pick

Sedsy-Cat

Not surprisingly, I waffle back and forth on the subject of Artemi Panarin.  The dude has the silky mitts.  Even when I am grumping because I don't think he has been nearly as hard on the puck this year as he was last year, I still think that he drives the offense on that top line.  Should Jarmo find himself in a situation where you just HAVE to trade him, I wonder if Bjorkstrand can fill that role to some extent.  Bjork is not the same player as the Panarin, but I wonder if he could fill that role. 

All that said, I think we have the equivalent of a late first round pick invested in Panarin.  Say Sonny just doesn't make it in the NHL (which is not what I am saying); it would be roughly the equivalent of Sonny whiffing in terms of an organizational impact.  Not at all like losing a number one overall, such as Taveres.  So it wouldn't be the end of the day if we kept Panarin, and lost him to free agency.  You can only do that math in retrospect. looking to see what was accomplished in the playoffs.

But what could you get at the deadline, for a short term rental?  You want something like a prospect,  a player, and a pick for someone of Panarin's caliber.  What would that look like?  So, my buddy Bill said something funny along these lines the other day.  He just blurted out Bittner, Sedlak, and a pick.  Paul Bittner is a solid player, has had some ups and downs, but still firmly on the developmental path.  We don't know how he will turn out yet.  Definitely a prospect.  Not an Abramov, but still a prospect. 

Lucas Sedlak is an NHL player.  I personally love the player, especially in the rose tinted glasses of the Calder Cup Championship he helped win by being on fire in the playoffs.  But he's a player, and you could put him on your roster and roll him out there, probably in a bottom six goal.  But if you were responsible for selling him there are a lot of possibilities: "look at those playoff goals in the A!  Won a championship!, All he really needs is some top six playing time... etc, etc".  Other teams have players like these as well, and the trick is to get you to believe they are something more when you are making a trade.

So for a hypothetical exercise, let's assume Jarmo decides he has to trade Panarin, and he is negotiating with Jarmo2, who has the CBJ system at his disposal.  Jarmo2 is hoping to get Jarmo to take Bittner, Sedlak, and hopefully the 31st overall pick for Panarin.  It may be a faint hope that Jarmo2 can re-sign Panarin, but he is willing to give it a shot, and he hasn't mortgaged the franchise to do so.  Jarmo, on the other hand, is trying to get Abramov, Bjorkstrand, and a pick out of Jarmo2 in order to part with a prized player.  If he could get that from Jarmo2 you would like to think that you have bolstered your long term franchise depth in order to move a player who won't sign.

This is a really difficult position for Jarmo.  But if the best you could get would be the former combination of players, it just wouldn't be worth it to trade Panarin.  You keep him knowing that you are going to eat the loss.  And it will hurt.  It's like whiffing on a late first round pick.  But it happens, and you move on.  Likewise, if you decide not to move Panarin at the deadline, you hope to have some tangible hardware to show for that decision.  Maybe not the cup, but certainly not a first round exit. 

I noticed something funny during the Ottawa game on Monday night.  It was late in the game, and Ottawa had come back and tied the game.  And I saw the Jackets get a little mad, and really start bearing down on what they were doing.  At that point, you knew they were going to score, and low and behold they did.  So as a long time Blue Jackets fan, it is interesting to me to see that this team has another gear.  Back in 2008-09, the first playoff year, I knew the team had nothing left to give.  They left it all on the ice to get to the playoffs, and there was no other gear available.  This team has that gear.  How effectively they use it remains to be seen, and they have to sort out how to be operating in that fashion when the playoffs arrive.  It's not the kind of thing you can just turn on, you do need to be running at that level when the playoffs start.  That will make this second half of the season interesting to watch.

Here's wishing everyone a safe and prosperous 2019!

GO JACKETS!!
GO MONSTERS!!