Do Unto Others...

Matt Calvert Gets on The Score Sheet

Sorry for a bit of a late post here, but I wanted a bit of time to reflect on the win over the Bruins.  They are who we are chasing now, and they are a mere 13 points ahead of us.  Ugh.  On the positive side, the CBJ take the season series against Boston, 2-0-1, which is a real step forward four our group.  Yes, perhaps Boston is having a bit of a down year, but we're not?  So real progress there.

The best part of it was that we beat Boston at their game.  When the Bruins are at their best, they'll keep you close in a tight, hard fought game, then break your back late in the third period.  Been there.  Seen it done.  It hurts, with Lucic often scoring late on a physical drive to the net.  This time is was the CBJ sticking one in late, on a real nice, very determined play by Cam Atkinson, moving into the slot to make the first shot that solved Rask, but barely.  Calvert got to the tap-in before the Boston defender could get there, then followed up with an empty netter to ice the game.

One of our readers asked me if I thought Head Coach Todd Richards was the right guy to be coach.  I think yes, and here's why.  The injuries have been brutal, and they are not on the Coach's list of responsibilities.  Filling in with the best AHL guy will only take you so far, and when you are using 5 of them, other teams will take advantage of it.  This is the NHL, and they care naught for your weaknesses, they just want to beat you.  But my argument isn't that it's not his fault.

My argument is more about how he managed the lineup in the last two games, a loss and a win.  HCTR assembled the line of Foligno-Johansen-Hartnell and it has been productive for several games.  Then Jarmo reached down to Springfield and pulled up Josh Anderson, a weighty young lad who we hope has a great future in the league.  So for the New York game, Richie tossed Dubinsky into the doghouse for a brutal gaffe in the Montreal game, and demoted him to the fourth line.  He also pushed Wennberg up to the 2nd line, a place he will ultimately play long term, along side Calvert and Atkinson.  That is a very fast line, which is a good thing to roll out against the high flying Rangers.  Anderson went in on a third line that with Dubinsky playing on that line at times, which ended up being pretty stout.  Although that game did not end well for us, Richie did a good job matching personnel to the opponents and we only lost 2-1.  The Rangers laid 5 on Pittsburgh last night, so holding them to 2 whilst having momentary brain cramps isn't so bad.

Against Boston, Richie broke up the successful Johansen-Foligno-Hartnell line, by moving Morin up to the line, and creating a Dubninsky, Hartnell, and Anderson line.  This line caused Boston all kinds of trouble, because it is a very Boston-like line, a good combination of size and skill.  Anderson's speed really helped this line.  Playing the Wennberg-Atkinson-Calvert line again, made enough of a speed match-up problem for Boston that they could not capitalize on the youth of the center (Dubinsky was still on the ice when Atkinson and Calvert did their thing to win the game, however).  This game of course, was a nice win.

So my point is that so long as he is not holding a hand of AHL deuces, Richie does a pretty good job of arranging his line up to create match-up problems for the other team.  I think that's what Jarmo and JD saw when they extended his contract.  So yeah, Richie is the right guy for this group I think.  It's been a tough, and unlucky year for our bunch.  But as they get healthier, they are going to get better, and it will be rough on the other teams to have to play our guys down the stretch.  For what that's worth.

GO JACKETS!!

We Are Last Year's Islanders

Last year the Islanders were widely predicted to be a successful team.  An injury to their goal tender took their season off the rails, and the analogy is not dissimilar to the Blue Jackets experience this year.  The Islanders ended up needing to make a goal tending change, signing Halak from the Blues, but the reality is not that different from the CBJ season.

Bob went down early.  Both the team and he recovered, and put on a good streak to try to get back in the race.  However, both the Rangers and the Capitals put streaks on at the same time, so we did not make up any ground in the playoff race.  It is their year.  I never had any qualms that our team could beat the Rangers last year. Since the beginning of November, I have never been confident that our battered team could beat this year's Rangers.  It's just the way it is.  The Rangers are not dramatically better, they just have it going on all cylinders at this moment in time, and are playing with a lot of confidence.  Next year is another season, and we will see.  But for now, they've got it going.  The person I am most happy for is Rick Nash.  He labored on inadequate teams for so many years here.  Now he has an opportunity on a good team that has it going.  Rock on buddy!  I'm confident that Slats will blow it up in the wrong way in the long term, so will get my paybacks then.

I am happy with the way our guys played tonight.  I am happy that they tried to play a speed game against the Rangers.  They weren't successful, and lost on the odd man rushes a speed game give up.  With Wennberg and Anderson up, the team speed looked good.  It is way too early to abandon that style of play.  While we may amass a certain amount of evidence that we are not good at playing a style of game that takes advantage of our team speed, we have at least acknowledged that team speed does nothing for you when you are collapsing on the net.  Speed vs Defense is an age old quandary in hockey, and we are feeling our way through the growth period it takes to play with speed using young talent.  I like that.

This is not our year.  Last year was.  Next year may well be.  But this, the 13th year of NHL hockey played in our fair City, has not been kind to us.  So it goes.  It remains to be seen what this season can bring.  I will embrace and enjoy the All Star game we are blessed to have with every fiber of my being.  And trust me, I have a lot of fiber!

I am content with the effort.  The players care, and they are trying.  The results just are not gonna come, not with a crippled line up.  I think that is a short term issue, not a long term issue.  Bob hates to lose.  That will take us a long way.  Other than that, it is what it is.  While hope is not a strategy, as Jeff Little so aptly points out, it is associated with Conner McDavid.  Which would be cool, no matter how improbable.

A good game tonight, against a very good opponent.  In the third period, we tried to match speed with speed.  We did not fare poorly, though it had no effect on the outcome.  That is an experiment to continue, particularly this year.

GO JACKETS!!!

Josh Anderson Recalled

Josh Anderson

I just saw on the crawler on the NHL network that the CBJ have placed Jack Skille on injured reserve and called up Josh Anderson from Springfield.  I like this move.  If one of our young players is going to develop into a replacement Nathan Horton, Josh is the one I would pick.  He's got some size, he's got some skill, and I think he will be a good addition to the lineup.  Youthful legs for a 3 games in 4 days stretch.

I thought Josh had one of the better training camps among the young players, but he was one of the first to be sent down.  Josh has 4 G - 7 A for 11 P in 37 games in Springfield.  Not lighting it up, but its still a good idea for him to get his feet wet up at the NHL.  I will be highly interested to see how he does tomorrow.

GO JACKETS!!

Where Do I Begin?

This Photo is titled "Anger"

From the perspective of a fan who watched the game from the arena tonight, I question some of the calls by the refs Jean-Caude from Montreal, and Jean-Pierre from Montreal.  The phantom boarding penalty against Dubinsky behind the play that set up the winning goal perhaps I will be able to see on the game video.  Certainly no dives embellishment penalties were called.  However, the winning goal was scored with a relatively uncontested shot from below the hashmarks in the slot.  If Pacioretty would have missed that shot he should have been demoted to the AHL.  Certainly, Montreal did not give up that type of shot to the CBJ the whole game.  With the shot totals showing 31 to 16 in favor of Montreal, it is a small wonder that the CBJ carried a 2-0 lead early in the third period.

So what is different this year than last year?  First the opposition, all across the board is playing better.  Both New York teams are playing better, the Capitals are playing better, and New Jersey, the CBJ, Philly and Carolina are fading.  We don't like to talk about it, because it is so painful, but at this time of the year, Nathan Horton returned to our lineup.  In what may have been his last bout of professional hockey, his spirit and presence on the ice helped to propel the team to one of its 10 win months.  That is not going to show up this year, and we miss it sorely, though we don't talk about it.

The other thing we sorely miss is Ryan Murray.  This came to me as I was watching young Cody Golobef pass the puck to Tyutin.  Cody can play in the NHL, for sure.  It's going to come.  He is a good young talent, and Jarmo and company are smart to not try to push him through waivers, because he will be claimed.  So what does Ryan Murray bring that Cody doesn't, pretty much nothing, except for a calming effect.  Murray had the uncanny ability to take a hurried, off balance pass, settle it, and make a good pass from there.  Excited, off balance passes come in, calmness and accuracy goes out.  That calming effect is sorely missed when the pressure is on, as the plays that arise after the calm, accurate pass tend to be better overall.

Last year we rolled three second lines, and a third/fourth line.  Derek MacKenzie and company won their matchups most nights out.  Currently, our fourth line is inferior to most other teams.  It is an adventure to roll them out on the ice.  Yes, there was one series where they did a really good job of possessing the puck in the offensive zone.  That was one shift out of the game.  They need to do that for more shifts than not, but they disappeared after that one shift.  Richie keeps putting them out there, but they keep underperforming.  Our third line is little better, but has the redeeming value that Wennberg continues to amass NHL experience.  That is going to pay off down the road.

This three game losing streak has a lot of potential to spiral on us.  One thing for sure, it is not the effort, desire, or want of the team.  The injuries have made real holes in the team, but that gives Jarmo and Company a barometer of how they handle duress.

Make no mistake, the better team won tonight.  I have a serious attitude about that, and am hoarse from yelling at the refs.  But that doesn't mean I'm correct.  But as a fan, I don't need to be.  As a fanboy blogger I don't need to be either, but it's nice to have a tiny bit of credibility.  But I suspect I blew that in the first paragraph.  C'est la vie, eh?

GO JACKETS!!!

Editors Note:  I love what Hartnell brings to this team.  It's gonna pay dividends in the long run!

Stability In The Midst Of Chaos

Bobrovsky Signs Extension

As we sit in limbo between the naming of the All-Star team, a high flying New York Islanders team that visits tonight, and my angst concerning last night's performance against Toronto, I have finally realized what I think is going on around us.  Our team has staged a stirring rally on the back drop of a horrifying injury situation.  But this is not last year.  In spite of their play, they are simply unable to make any headway in terms of closing the gap between us and the playoffs.

I look forward extremely to the rest of this season.  Our squad is going to battle all the way, that's how they are wired.  They had a rough period on the road against a team that pulled out all the stops in terms of motivating the players.  They fired the coach, got a talking to by the President of Hockey Ops, who can definitely decide who stays and who goes.  Good Lord, there is nothing left in the playbook short of canning the GM.  So my level of angst about last night's game is more related to my expectations, and my desire for them to lay the wood to Toronto, and not about the actual situation the respective teams were in, and how they might react to that situation.  I think Richie appreciated that situation better than I did.

Keep in mind that this is a roster that has seen 95% turn over since the 2008-09 playoff team.  Change has been the reality of this organization for the last several years.  Take a moment, and ask yourself how many Cup winners underwent radical change before their run to the Cup?  It's not the norm, certainly.  We have changed this team since it last experienced a level of success (not counting last year).  This group has demonstrated an ability to rise from adversity not once, not twice, but three times.  So what do we see.  A stream of contracts locking the core of this team up for the long term future.  This is the core stability that you need for the run.  Central to that run is goal tending.

We have good talent in the pipeline.  We have unexpected talent in the pipeline (Oliver Bjorkstrand, I'm talking to you), and we have a core of experienced, yet young players.  I do not have a good feeling about tonight's game.  I think that in spite of our climb in December, we are not going to be able to close the gap enough to make the playoffs this year.  I KNOW I am going to have a blast going to games for the rest of this season, and fully plan to let my hair down on All-Star weekend.  And I hope that whatever little lucky charm Jarmo keeps is on a roll when they pop the ball to see who gets McDavid.

The future of this group is bright.  We may be looking at some short term pain here, but the long term looks good.  Jarmo has provided stability to this group.  They will respond to that, it's who they are.  And Bob is the ringleader.

It's all good.  I'm looking forward to a fun night tonight, regardless of the outcome.

GO JACKETS!!

Shanahan Calls out Leafs Players, Wisniewski Suspended for 8 Games

Shanny suspends Wiz, Again

As the Columbus Blue Jackets prepare to face the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight in Toronto, Brendan Shanahan, the President of Hockey Operations for the Leafs called out his players in the wake of the firing of Coach Randy Carlyle.

Quoth Shanny:  The onus is on the players now.  The coach is gone.  We have been evaluating them, and we will continue to evaluate them.  In order to let the players know that we are extremely serious about this, I have decided to suspend James Wisniewski for eight games.  This has worked well for me in the past, and it seems a good way to let the Leafs players know that I am not taking prisoners here.  No one can evade my reach!!

Wisniewski was unavailable for comment.

GO JACKETS!!!

Regressing to the Mean, But the Mean is Not Static

There is a concept often used in advanced hockey analytics called 'regressing to the mean'.  All hockey players experience performance variability throughout the season.  Sometimes you are on fire, sometimes you are in a slump.  That area in between is the average, otherwise known as 'the mean'.  Regressing to the mean is used in reference to long term performance that is dramatically different than the mean, and it is a tool to try to detect whether a team is on an unbelievable run, and will come back to earth.  There are those that will say that the Colorado Avalanche is regressing to the mean this year, after playing well above their average performance for much of last year.

A failure to understand this concept has treated the Blue Jackets poorly, by deceiving Scott Howson as to what was going on around him.  It was the 2009-10 season, the year after the first run to the playoffs.  Two teams, Colorado and Minnesota started 2009-10 really hot.  The 2009-10 Colorado team is used as an example in the hockey analytics site, Behind the Net.  With a young Chicago team flashing by everyone on the way to its first modern Stanley Cup, and Colorado and Minnesota apparently experiencing great success, Howson determined to make the CBJ younger and faster, like these other teams.  As the CBJ experienced a fatal December swoon, and shortly thereafter both Minnesota and Colorado crashed back to earth (regressed to the mean), Howson determined to part ways with his stodgy old coach Ken Hitchcock, in part because, 'he can't coach the young players'.  Had Howson forced Voracek and Brassard back down into the AHL, restocked with veterans that Hitch loved, they might have returned to the playoffs in 2009-10.  Instead he pushed Jake and Brass along a little bit too soon, and it has taken them many years in the pros, and a trade to another team to start to find their level.  Arniel was disastrously brought in to coach up the young guys, and before the dust had settled there were fan protests outside of Nationwide Arena.

So what does that mean for today?  It has a lot to do with how I feel about our playoff chances.  This isn't the first time I've thought 'stick a fork in 'em, they're done' about the current group of hockey players.  And they have relentlessly proved me wrong.  Not that proving me wrong is a real high bar, but....  Anyway, it has to do with our concept of what 'average performance' is for this group.  For whatever reason, the entire roster has been remade, with Tyutin and Boll as the only remainder of the group that 'quit on Hitch' in 2009-10.  What then is this current group's average?  Well for one thing, it involves being in last place.  But on the other hand ....

Dream On Little Chicken

It all starts with Bob

Presumably, by the title, you can deduce that I've seen a few too many Wendy's commercials on this road trip.  But you are not dreaming, the CBJ beat the high flying Dallas Stars tonight 4-2, playing an excellent road game.  The CBJ came out flying, with Wiz scoring early, and Johansen potting a beauty on the power play.  A great first 10 minutes on a road game (or a home game for that matter), and the CBJ took a 2 goal lead into the second period.

Then early in the second period, Kevin Connauton scored off a one timer set up with a bunny of a pass from Johansen, to make it 3-0.  Then the parade to the penalty box started, and the Stars gathered momentum, scoring 2 goals to get to 3-2 by the end of the second period.

Dallas carried a lot of the play in the third period, but could not solve Bob.  They kept cranking up the pressure, but over committed, and with less than 3 minutes remaining, Letestu and Wennberg played hot potato with the puck on a break away, with Letestu potting the goal to ice the game.  The good guys win 4-2.

The good news on the injury front was Mark Letestu and Cam Atkinson returned to the lineup.  It was noticeable.  The win moves the CBJ above .500, which is a little crazy to think about given where this team was.  But they are playing really well, with a great deal of determination.  They need to keep doing that, as a 10 win January is necessary to duplicate the pace of from last year.  Fortunately, our next game in the road trip is in Toronto, which should be pretty peaceful [sticks tongue in cheek].

In the current NHL schedule, we play Western Conference teams twice each season.  If you split most of those games, you are at .500, and you need to win in your Division to make the playoffs.  Dallas laid the wood to us in Nationwide Arena early in the year.  Tonight we erased that loss.  Time to move on.

Excellent road game by the Jackets tonight.  A well deserved win.  Well done!  Last year we seemed to really struggle with teams that brought a lot of speed.  We don't seem to be having quite as much trouble with that this year.  That's a step forward, in spite of the rugged start.  Good stuff.

GO JACKETS!!

Savvyed By the Bell

Dubinsky get career goal 100

The Blue Jackets won the game against Colorado 4-3 on a goal by David Savard with slightly more than a minute left in the game.  This was fitting, as Savard gave up the first goal with a pretty egregious turn over.  It was great to see him rally from that mistake to play a solid game, and get rewarded at the end.  Hartnell kept the play alive, bounced the puck to Foligno, who fed Savard, whose shot deflected off a Colorado player and in the net.  This redeems the CBJ from last night's game, which was a team loss, and will not be mentioned again.

Brandon Dubinsky got the game tied after Savard's mistake by scoring his 100th career goal, which he followed with goal 101 to get started on the next hundred.  Johansen scored on a nice tic tac toe play, and Savard had the winner.   This game the team showed good resiliency, and recorded a rare road win in Colorado.  This team really needs to duplicate January, 2014 as one of the 10 win months in franchise history.  If they are going to overtake the Rangers or the Capitals, they have to keep winning until one of them cracks, as both of those teams kept pace with the Jackets in December.  So a good road win to help keep pace in the conference.

Curtis McElhinney had the net tonight, and played very well.  On top of that, he threw in a couple of sterling saves to keep the Jackets in the game.  As he said in the post season interviews, he had a tough start to the season, but of late he has been playing very well.  The schedule has a lot of back to back games coming up, and have CMac at the top of his game at this juncture.  Very good stuff.

A top line of Johansen, Foligno, and Hartnell seemed to be disruptive for Colorado all night long, in all aspects of the game.  One of the problems with all the injuries is that there is little consistency in the lines, but this is one that has played before.  I think having Hartnell and Foligno on the same line as Johansen takes a lot of pressure of Joey, as they are a threat in themselves.

Next up on the road trip, Dallas.  That ought to be fun.

The Jackets pull back to even for 2015.  More road work to do to stay in this thing.  Great game tonight for the CBJ.

GO JACKETS!!

2015; Ready or Connauton, Here We Come!!

I put Savvy up here because I don't have a pic of Connauton

Okay, it is important to remember that all this starts with Bobrovsky.  Without Bob, nothing is possible.  Our colleagues over at the Cannon ran a player of the year post.  I voted for Nick Foligno, because I wear his sweater to every game, but realistically, it all flows from Bob.

Tonight was a classic example.  Our guys didn't come out flying, Minnesota carried the play for much of the first two periods, but only had one goal to show for it, thanks to Bobrovsky.

Late in the second period, Kevin Connauton grew weary of it all, and started driving the offensive play.  Our forwards had started getting the puck deep better in the latter half of the second period.  While some of our D-men were having a tendency to be somewhat delicate with the puck, Connauton began skating and shooting aggressively.  Well done lad.  Well done indeed!

Ultimately Connauton was rewarded in the most unlikely manner, a puck flung at the net on a spin around finding the top corner.  It seems like a fluke, but I would argue that he dialed in a notion of where the net was on a series of very good shots he took before that goal.  Later in the third period, he fed Savard with a beauty of a pass that Savard one-timed into the net.  A beautiful set up by Connauton.  Huge props to Jarmo and the pro scouting staff for identifying this player, allowing us to claim him off waivers.  He is playing with confidence and abandon, that is serving him well, and is helping his team win.

There are a lot of things I liked about tonight's game, even though we didn't play particularly well in the first half of the game.  First, the win get's us to .500, effectively erasing a horrifying start.  What they earn from here, is what they earn from here.  Secondly, it was a win in front a full barn.  Last year, for a lot of the year, in important games in front of big crowds at home (albeit often liberally spiced with fans from the loyal opposition), we tended to lose those games.  That only really changed in the playoffs.  This year, we have been winning those big home games, Pittsburgh, Tampa, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, all teams near the top of the standings.  This is a step forward for our group, in spite of the dire injury circumstances, and the players deserve full marks for their fortitude.

It's after midnight, and I just hit the wall.  I'm traveling tomorrow, so must bail.  There's more I want to add to the paragraph above, but it's gone.  From all of us here at the Dark Blue Jacket, and at DKM Hockey, we wish you a happy and healthy 2015.  Let's hope for playoffs, AND a high draft pick.  Let's settle for one of them.  And above all....

GO JACKETS!!!!!