Should I stay or should I go? Part I: The Forwards

[Campbell's brand-new series, getting a jump-start on the looming offseason...I'm posting while he gets up to speed with the Blogger interface. - DBJ]

Over the next couple weeks I will be doing an in depth examination of the upcoming free agents of the Columbus Blue Jackets and whether they should return or not.

PART 1 – FORWARDS

Chris Clark

RW #71

Age: 35 Ht: 6'0” Wt: 196 lbs.

Acquired: Via trade with Washington Capitals

Current Salary: $2,633,333

Status After Season: Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA)

The former captain of the Washington Capitals was acquired in the 2009/10 season along with defenseman Milan Jurcina in exchange for perpetually off-side left wing Jason Chimera. Clark was mainly acquired to add leadership to the locker room, something the team was deemed to be missing after the retirement of Michael Peca following the 2008/09 season. While Clark started off the year extremely well, nagging injuries and age seem to have caught up with him and he seems unable to stay healthy enough to play a bottom six role. It is impossible to determine the effect Clark has had in a leadership role, however it seems that Rick Nash and R.J. Umberger are the leaders of this team.

I can't see Howson offering Clark a contract, and if he did it certainly would have to be one that included a substantial pay cut. His numbers and injuries just have not allowed Scott Arniel to find a solid role for him, and even when not hurt he has often been a healthy scratch. Springfield is teeming with gritty wingers that can pitch in points every now and then, so my guess would be Clark is allowed to walk.

Game 74/Phoenix: My Take

In their last 10PM start of the 2010-2011 season, the Columbus Blue Jackets lost, 3-0, to the Phoenix Coyotes in front of 215 people at Jobing.com Arena.

Word is that Rick Nash and R.J. Umberger held a closed-door, players-only meeting after the game.  The DBJ blog had a mole in the room, and thus we offer:

THE TOP 10 COMMENTS OVERHEARD AT THE BLUE JACKETS' PLAYERS-ONLY MEETING

1. Rivet, Moreau, Clark, Murray, Hejda, Stralman - Out.  You're not going to be here next year anyway.

2. Guys, the season isn't over yet.  It's really OK to keep scoring.

Game 60/Phoenix: My Take

The Columbus Blue Jackets left for a week-long road trip on the right foot, dispatching with the Phoenix Coyotes, 5-3, in front of nearly 17,000 fans at Nationwide Arena.

The obvious big story is that rookie Matt Calvert, in his 20th NHL game, dropped a natural hat trick on Phoenix goalie Ilya Bryzgalov.  That makes 9 goals in 20 games.  What more needs be said?  How about this picture...instead of a thousand words:

Hats rained onto the ice for minutes after Matt Calvert scored his third goal.
(Photo from the Columbus Blue Jackets)

The boiling point

When Doug MacLean was frog-marched out of Columbus, one of the many grievances aired about him was his oft-frantic approach to personnel moves.  I won't admit to a first-hand knowledge of MacLean's foibles as I started following the Columbus Blue Jackets when he had one foot out the door - right before Ken Hitchcock was hired.  Regardless, the terms "circus huckster" and other all-hype/no-results slurs have been tossed his way.  And it appears that trades like that for Sergei Federov were at least in part based upon desperation, not just for improving the team.  And the results were not strong, to put it gently.

[UPDATE: I just read this blog piece about the rebuilding of the NFL's Detroit Lions.  Read this paragraph, substitute Doug MacLean for Matt Millen, and I think you get a sense of where I'm coming from:

Under former GM Matt Millen, the franchise wasted roster spots on blown draft picks and lemon free-agent acquisitions. And, under the multiple coaching changes, never appeared to establish any scheme. As Millen's pokes and prods turned into desperate risks and frantic prayers, the transient, ambiguous roster fed an incessant identity crisis. One that was defined only by failure.

Does that make sense?]

Enter Scott Howson.  Our very own personnel Ice Man (or Ninja GM, depending on the jargon you use) has dropped the organizational blood pressure considerably in Columbus.  He often is loathe to make any moves at all, but he most certainly does not get rolled over when he does.  Consider Antoine Vermette for Pascal Leclaire.  Who won that trade?  Or Tyutin/Backman for Zherdev/Fritsche?

Perhaps the penultimate demonstration of the patience on Howson's part was this entire past offseason.  Staring a disastrous 2009-10 season in the rearview mirror, complete with the firing of likely Hall of Famer Ken Hitchcock and replacing him with Claude Noel, one would think that Howson would take advantage of the drop-off after the 2008-09 playoff year to move some players out, bring some in and improve the roster.

Think again.  The two major roster moves that Howson made were: 1) Claim Ethan Moreau off of waivers, and 2)  Re-sign Steve Mason.  Other than that, Howson essentially said that he liked his roster, and that while he'd like to upgrade the defense, he'd be comfortable taking this squad into the season.  And, yes, he overhauled the coaching staff.

So here we are, the week after Christmas.  Despite what still is the best CBJ start ever, the Jackets are struggling mightily to extricate themselves from a slide that has seen them win a whopping four games (including overtime/shootout winners) since Thanksgiving.  As I've written all over this blog, the Blue Jackets have demonstrated since their dismantling at the hands of the Red Wings that they are incapable of reliably beating any good NHL hockey club with this roster.  It's probably past time to start making moves to get the CBJ out of 12th place in the Western Conference and back into playoff contention.

What we love about Howson - his ability to keep his hand close to the vest until he gets a deal he knows will at least be an even trade if not a win...his willingness to stand pat rather than stir the pot up - is precisely what drives us crazy at times like this.  

Who stays? Who goes?

Interesting little tidbit from the Dispatch guys today on Twitter:

[The Columbus Blue Jackets] said the magic words to MacKenzie and Wilson: "Get a place." On 2-way contracts, but told they'll be staying w #CBJ.

First, and let's not minimize this, let's congratulate Derek Mackenzie and Kyle Wilson.  Both guys are former AHL lifers who have busted their tails off to stick in the NHL and, for both guys, it's the first times in their careers that they will actually do so.  I waxed (reasonably) eloquent about Wilson after his shootout winner on Monday night, and my "Time to Step Up" piece on MacKenzie says all I need to say on him.  Presuming that the two guys perform at an NHL level, more power to them.  It's great to see merit getting rewarded, something that both Scott Arniel and Scott Howson are doing despite the strange world of the NHL collective bargaining agreement, with issues involving waivers, one-way/two-way contracts, salary caps, etc.

Pleasantries aside, let's get to the heart of the matter.  Why is the front office telling these two guys to plan on sticking around for the season at this specific moment?

Game 17/Anaheim: My Take

The Columbus Blue Jackets stared down the grim face of history on Friday night, never giving in (or giving up) against a tenacious Anaheim Ducks squad at the Honda Center.  The Blue Jackets won, 4-3, marking their first Friday win of the season.

Or was it Saturday?  I mean, the victory wasn't sealed until after midnight Columbus time.  Curse these West Coast trips...

Anyway, onto the game.  It seems like only yesterday that I wrote this:

All the CBJ will do is come into your house, track mud onto the carpet, empty your fridge, eat your chips, turn on all the lights...and send your fans home unhappy. 

That's what the Columbus Blue Jackets do this year.

And again, it rings true.  Those plucky Blue Jackets just don't seem to realize that they're supposed to lose their way through these West Coast trips, that it's the Los Angeleses and San Joses and Vancouvers who are supposed to threaten the Detroit/Chicago (but certainly not the rest of the Central Division) hegemony in the West.  This crystallized for me in the final 1-2 seconds of the game, where Corey Perry realized that his team was going to lose to Columbus and, in a fit of exasperation, hauled off and sucker-punched Antoine Vermette.

Changing the culture - Inside and out

It's been a fascinating twenty-four hours in Columbus Blue Jackets land.

One day ago, the CBJ were facing the prospect of hosting the Western Conference-leading St. Louis Blues, who sported a gaudy 9-1-1 record.  The Jackets were not in a bad position per se, with an 8-5 record and an eight seed in the West, but they came off a disappointment against Minnesota that was punctuated by a deflating third period.  

Scott Howson and Scott Arniel appear to understand that the keys to
a consistent winning program don't entirely lie in X's and O's.
(Photo from the Columbus Blue Jackets)

The feeling of loathing permeated the fanbase.  Me included.  I mean, look at these quotes, from both Twitter and blogs:

• I predict a stressful game tonight.
  
• I'm still keeping some painkillers close at hand for tonight's game regardless.
  
• I must admit, going into last nights Blue Jackets game, I didn’t have a good feeling about our chances against the Blues. Over the last several years, we’ve been punked every which way but loose by that team. Now, they were coming into Nationwide with the best record in the Western Conference, riding a 7 game winning streak, and Halak was in goal.
  
• I'm man enough to admit it: This game had me scared. I honestly thought that that CBJ were going to come out and, like so many times before, melt in the face of the challenge of a big game.
  
• There weren't a lot of folks around the league who gave the Blue Jackets much of a chance in this one. Hell, there weren't a lot of folks in Columbus who gave them much of chance either (and certainly not the two guys sitting behind me on my flight to Chicago this morning). I'm not going to tell you that I did. I would classify my pregame mood as somewhat concerned.

Game 9/Edmonton: My take

The Columbus Blue Jackets fended off the Edmonton Oilers and a handful of squirrelly referees to take the game, 3-2, in an overtime shootout.

Rick Nash and Nikita Filatov scored on the only two shots needed in the shootout (Steve Mason turned aside the first Edmonton shot, and the second shot pinged off the side-bar.)  Nash coming up big in the shootout is something that CBJ fans are accustomed to, but the Filatov game-winner is special.

Nikita Filatov must be able to feel like he can smile again -
for the first time in a while.  (Flickr photo by OhioFamily)

Just yesterday, DBT and I watched Filatov cleaning up pucks after practice.  It seemed humiliating, watching him schlepping a five-gallon bucket around the ice.  He was not looking chipper.  Surely, it was not the highlight of his time in professional hockey.  So to see him put in a position to win the game, and then win it - you could see the stress melt away for just a moment.  Good for him.  It's a needed confidence boost for a talented young player.  Let's hope he keeps building momentum, both on the ice and in his head.

Time to step up: End of training camp

After the Columbus Blue Jackets' 4-3 win over the (hapless) Atlanta Thrashers on Saturday night, the team boarded a 757-200 at Port Columbus airport and made the flight to Stockholm, Sweden to open the 2010-2011 National Hockey League regular season against the San Jose Sharks.  And with that, training camp and the pre-season functionally ended.

Sure, the CBJ will play an exhibition game on Tuesday at 1PM EST against the Malmo Redhawks, but it's hard to consider that game as an NHL-caliber pre-season game and thus won't be counted in my statistical analysis.  The game could have merit related to individual performances, player injuries (getting hurt, coming back from injury) or chemistry developments, not to mention the rumored yellow and red jerseys.  But let's keep it in perspective - it's not NHL competition, and it's not an NHL game.

I did a mid-preseason review after the first four games, and let's continue it with the last 4.  It's a mixed bag, to be sure, but I think I can offer some spots for optimism.

OFFENSE

Team	Total Shots	Total Goals	Conversion %	Shots/Game	Goals/Game
10-11 CBJ - Full Preseason	247	25	10.12%	30.88	3.13
10-11 CBJ - Preseason games 5-8	112	13	11.61%	28.00	3.25
10-11 CBJ - Preseason games 1-4	135	12	8.89%	33.75	3.00
09-10 CBJ	2,338	214	9.15%	28.51	2.61
08-09 CBJ	2,490	217	8.71%	30.37	2.65
09-10 Washington Capitals	2,693	313	11.62%	32.84	3.82
09-10 Pittsburgh Penguins	2,688	249	9.26%	32.78	3.04
09-10 Phoenix Coyotes	2,502	211	8.43%	30.51	2.57

The obvious area for excitement is the conversion percentage - the percentage of shots that become goals. The Columbus Blue Jackets started the preseason with a conversion rate that, while not horrible, wasn't going to set the hockey world's hair on fire.  In the back half of the preseason, however, the conversion percentage hopped up a few points and rivaled the percentage of the most prolific scoring team in the NHL last season, the Washington Capitals.

Our bubble boys can beat Minnesota's starters

Let's get the personal stuff out of the way - this was the first actual game to which I brought the Dark Blue Toddler.  Luckily, the tickets were dirt cheap and the section (209) was pretty much empty above us in row J, so he was able to munch on Cheerios, drink milk, crawl around the (widow-maker) stairs and run back and forth across the aisles.  Oh, and eat my fries.  He lasted almost two entire periods, not bad for a 16-month-old.

And, once we bailed out, the Columbus Blue Jackets started scoring.

A Jackets team made up of a small handful of starters and a whole bunch of players on the bubble won, 3-2 over a Minnesota Wild team that was comprised of their NHL-level lineup as they had made most all of their cuts already.  That's profound, something in which the CBJ can be pleased.  Or the Wild can be downright scared.  Take your pick.

Tom Sestito's closing argument as to why he should
make the Columbus Blue Jackets roster.

As I mentioned, I was chasing my son all over section 209, so my thoughts are admittedly incomplete and based largely upon quick glances as opposed to any detailed study of what I saw.  But here's my take:

• The Blue Jackets looked really ragged, which stands to reason as the roster was assembled with green-handled scissors and scotch tape in order to accommodate all of the players sitting on the roster bubble.  This was a night of forced chemistry, of proving to the coaches and management that you can perform in this new, Scott Arniel puck possession system.
• Alternatively, you can prove that you can offer other services to the team.  Mike Blunden and Tom Sestito ended up taking this route, getting in fights.  Blunden laid the beat down on his victim, and Sestito won in an impassioned decision.  By the way, Dark Blue Toddler enjoyed cheering with the fans over the fights...not that he understood what was going on.
• There's not a lot you can tell about a team on "last chance night," so I'll keep my profound statements about the team and their adaption to this new system to a minimum.
  

Post-9/24 AM practice thoughts

With the Dark Blue Toddler in tow, I headed down to Nationwide Arena to witness my first-ever Columbus Blue Jackets practice with the little guy...only my second practice ever, I believe.  I'm much more of a TV/internet fan of the club than an in-person fan, largely due to familial and work/family constraints, so it's interesting to see the machinations of the Columbus Blue Jackets system on full display with no filters applied beyond the glass that separates us from the ice.  I'd love to do it more often...hope to do so in the future.

Attending a practice in person only reemphasizes how much I have to learn about the game I enjoy so much.  With drills running almost constantly at both ends of the ice, and occasional specialty drills at center ice, there's so much going on that you really don't have a means to drink all the water coming out of the visual fire hydrant.  So you drink in what you can, pray you didn't miss anything big, and enjoy the experience.  Or at least I did, while not chasing my son up and down the stairs.

I only caught the on-ice practice for the last 45 minutes of the team that will play tonight, with barely enough of the balance of the squad to count as seeing them in-person.  Chasing the Toddler around the arena means that no photos will accompany this post.

Howson has assembled a tall roster, but I don't know as any are taller than Tommy Sestito.  Just saying...

Time to step up: Chris Clark

• Right wing
• 34 years old, 12th year in National Hockey League
• $2,633,333 cap hit 
• 4.4% of Columbus Blue Jackets salary cap
• Contract expires at end of this season
• 2009-2010 CBJ numbers: 36 games played, 3 goals, 2 assists, 5 points, -8, 21 penalty minutes, 12:06 avg. time on ice
• 2009-2010 Washington Capitals numbers: 38 games played, 4 goals, 112 assists, 15 points, -4, 59 penalty minutes, 11:39 avg. time on ice

Poor Chris Clark.  

Rather than try any meaningful analysis of Clark's performance, let's look at the timing of his arrival, and the goal that it was supposed to achieve.  Clark came (along with Milan Jurcina) in a December 28, 2009 trade with Washington in exchange for Jason Chimera.  This, after a team leadership meeting in Dallas less than one week earlier led Scott Howson to believe that leadership - or, more precisely, the lack thereof (especially in the wake of not re-signing Michael Peca) - and weak defense was the cause of the team's tailspin.  So, out with Chimera and in with the Capitals' captain.  

Think about it.  If leadership is the ability to get people to believe in you, relate to you and rally around what you say and do (my definition, don't bother googling it), when and from whom does it emerge?  Might I suggest it won't emerge at the depths of a mid-season slump from a new player who is dropped into the dressing room?  Yeah, that's right.  Chris Clark was in a no-win scenario last season.  

(On the bright side, the Washington Capitals flamed out spectacularly in the Stanley Cup playoffs.  So it's not like he missed a Cup run or anything.)