Friday, February 18, 2011

Games that matter, 2/18/11

LAST NIGHT: If it could go wrong, it did for the Columbus Blue Jackets' playoff hopes.  On the bright side, the relative value of the games was small.  To recap:
  • Sharks beat the Capitals
  • Coyotes beat the Thrashers
  • Predators beat the Canucks
  • Rangers beat the Kings in overtime
(The Rangers-Kings game was a wash - no effect on the CBJ.)

All told, Columbus lost a single percentage point of their playoff chances and are now down to 9.2%.

TONIGHT: I've been noticing that, as the days go on, the relative value of other teams' games drop and the value of CBJ wins increases that much more.  So this whole, "You control your own destiny" notion is ringing true for the Blue Jackets.  Let's look at the docket:
  • Blue Jackets over the Blackhawks
  • Ducks over the Wild
  • Sabres over the Blues
How big is tonight's game?  If the CBJ win in regulation, their playoff chances increase by 4.5%.  If they win in overtime, they increase by 4.1%.  If the Blackhawks win in regulation, the CBJ's hopes drop another 3.0%.  An overtime loss would see the chances drop by 1.0%.

No other game has the capacity to affect the CBJ more than 0.3%.

Simply put: WE. NEED. THIS. GAME.  Time is running short, both on the playoff run but especially leading up to the February 28 NHL Trade Deadline.

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